Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:07:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38e9…736d sports 634 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$588 (-6%) realized −$585 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%359W / 267L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$131
14 days+$116
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$399
other 24% −$246
crypto 1% −$2
world 1% +$2
politics 0% −$9
weather 0% −$5
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +18.1% +6.9% 75% 75% -3.5%
≤30d 97 +3.4% -6.5% 66% 66% -9.2%
≤90d 354 -2.0% -11.3% 58% 58% -12.7%
all 626 -5.3% -14.3% 57% 57% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 57% -16.0%
10% -22.5% 54% -24.1%
15% -30.0% 41% -31.4%
20% -36.9% 29% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized−$585
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses359 / 267
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions8
Markets (closed)626 / 634
History coverage145d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 626 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 79¢ 78¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) DR Congo 72¢ 72¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 72¢ 70¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$13 +42%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $30 +$11 +36%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 +$12 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$14 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 +$13 +32%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $30 +$17 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $23 −$23 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$26 +86%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $30 +$32 +105%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 +$30 +97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $35 +$10 +29%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $46 +$12 +26%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $39 +$12 +31%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $50 +$16 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $40 +$29 +73%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $49 −$49 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $28 +$11 +40%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $40 +$10 +24%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $43 +$25 +57%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $40 +$25 +62%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 +$23 +46%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$18 +36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $10 +$56 +550%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$28 +57%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $35 −$35 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $55 +$19 +34%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$9 +18%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$16 +52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 +$11 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $20 +$14 +70%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $50 +$10 +20%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $43 −$43 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $47 +$15 +31%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $50 +$17 +34%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $50 −$35 -70%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $50 +$17 +34%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $30 +$7 +24%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 +$13 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $30 +$13 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $20 +$8 +38%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $17 +$7 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $30 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $50 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 72¢ $30 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $19 1h
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $40 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $40 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $23 12h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $30 13h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $57 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $30 13h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $45 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $35 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $30 27h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $30 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $50 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $46 35h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $39 38h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $69 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $49 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $50 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $40 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $25 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $40 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $40 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $28 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.90 · official $154.90 (match) · 1296 history records