Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:37:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
38 0x38e9…4355 crypto 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 259d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$115 (+0%) realized +$115 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate85%60W / 11L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$1,645per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days+$79
14 days+$79
30 days+$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$95
other 8% +$7
politics 6% +$6
sports 2% −$42
world 1% +$4
tech 1% +$1
culture 1% −$1
weather 0% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +13.9% +3.0% 100% 100% +3.0%
≤30d 3 +4.7% -5.3% 67% 33% +1.7%
≤90d 11 +1.1% -8.6% 73% 9% -9.0%
all 71 +0.2% -9.3% 85% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 1% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,308) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.28 per $1 lost it wins $4.28
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

259d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses60 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage259d
Avg bet$1,645
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 24? Jun 22 $568 +$79 +14%
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 08 $36 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May? Jun 01 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $1,189 +$8 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 4-10? May 11 $1,186 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 7? May 07 $1,185 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 5? May 05 $1,172 +$1 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $1,177 +$1 +0%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5 May 01 $1,164 −$42 -4%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $1,197 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 02 $306 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 01 $4,377 +$4 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of Feb 28 $4,339 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 26? Feb 27 $4,334 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $4,330 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 February 16-22? Feb 23 $4,326 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $4,321 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $4,317 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on February 19? Feb 20 $4,313 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 17? Feb 18 $4,308 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 16? Feb 17 $4,304 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $4,300 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 14? Feb 15 $4,296 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on February 13? Feb 14 $4,291 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.30 on January 25? Jan 26 $1,314 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $9.00-$10 on the final day of trading of Jan 24 $1,312 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 22? Jan 23 $1,311 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.30 on January 20? Jan 21 $1,310 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 12-18? Jan 19 $1,308 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on January 17? Jan 18 $1,307 +$1 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of January 12 above $285? Jan 17 $1,306 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on January 15? Jan 16 $1,304 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 14? Jan 15 $1,303 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on January 13? Jan 14 $1,302 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on January 10? Jan 11 $1,299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on January 8? Jan 09 $1,298 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on January 6? Jan 07 $1,297 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 05 $1,295 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on January 4? Jan 05 $1,294 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on January 3? Jan 04 $1,293 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Jan 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 27? Nov 27 $1,299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on November 26? Nov 27 $1,298 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $100 on November 25? Nov 25 $1,296 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on November 24 Nov 25 $1,295 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 November 17-23? Nov 24 $1,294 +$1 +0%
Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $1,292 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on November 22? Nov 23 $1,291 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 24? SELL Yes 60¢ $329 40m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 24? SELL Yes 51¢ $63 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 24? SELL Yes 66¢ $136 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 24? SELL Yes 50¢ $118 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 24? BUY Yes 51¢ $54 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 24? BUY Yes 49¢ $514 1h
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 48¢ $36 14d
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 48¢ $36 15d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 37d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,189 42d
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 4-10? BUY No 100¢ $1,186 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,185 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,172 50d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $1,177 52d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5 SELL Under 48¢ $1,122 52d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1,164 53d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? SELL No 50¢ $1,197 56d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? BUY No 50¢ $1,197 56d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $35 110d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL No 78¢ $156 112d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 77¢ $155 112d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL No 76¢ $152 112d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 76¢ $151 112d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $34 114d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $835 114d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $34 114d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $20 114d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $50 114d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $67 114d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $1,568 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 192 history records