Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:13:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38ec…9015 sports 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$94 (-11%) realized −$39 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$39
14 days−$39
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$2
politics 25% −$5
other 23% −$42
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-40.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -33.6% -40.0% 36% 24% -14.9%
≤30d 33 -33.6% -40.0% 36% 24% -14.9%
≤90d 33 -33.6% -40.0% 36% 24% -14.9%
all 33 -33.6% -40.0% 36% 24% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.0% 24% -14.9%
10% -45.7% 21% -23.1%
15% -50.9% 21% -30.5%
20% -55.8% 18% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions8
Markets (closed)33 / 41
History coverage6d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+107%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-65%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? No 13¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-53%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-82%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $44 +$7 +16%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $29 +$16 +55%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $47 +$25 +53%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $37 −$20 -54%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $64 +$3 +4%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $40 +$27 +67%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $60 +$4 +7%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $5 $0 -8%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $25 −$11 -42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $15 +$10 +64%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $22 +$8 +37%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $10 +$10 +96%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $5 $0 -8%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $5 $0 -2%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 10 $20 −$14 -71%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Oman Jun 10 $36 −$13 -37%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $21 +$11 +50%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $54 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 86¢ $44 19h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $44 20h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $29 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 24h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 2¢ $1 46h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $1 46h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $17 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 26¢ $17 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $37 2d
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire BUY Las Vegas Aces 94¢ $4 2d
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire BUY Las Vegas Aces 96¢ $60 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 13¢ $1 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 59¢ $24 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 59¢ $40 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 93¢ $30 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 94¢ $30 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 56¢ $5 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 4d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA BUY paiN Gaming 11¢ $2 4d
Bolivia vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 23¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.83 · official $7.83 (match) · 103 history records