Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:08:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38ee…45a4 politics 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%8W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$5
sports 20% −$3
other 18% −$1
culture 6% −$1
world 2% −$1
crypto 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -9.8% -18.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 7 -31.4% -38.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 8 -27.5% -34.4% 12% 0% -9.9%
all 60 -15.7% -23.7% 13% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -31.0% 0% -18.4%
15% -37.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -43.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses8 / 52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage231d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 17 $82 $0 -0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -69%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $81 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $168 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $178 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $84 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $87 −$1 -1%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $1 $0 -50%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $83 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 24 $83 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Feb 08 $84 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 07 $86 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 06 $84 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 01 $1 $0 -12%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Feb 01 $84 $0 +0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 30 $83 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 28 $83 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 26 $173 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during C Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 22 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $173 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 21 $84 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $86 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 17 $176 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 15 $84 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 13? Jan 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 10 $87 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 09 $1 $0 -25%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 08 $184 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 08 $273 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 06 $92 $0 -0%
Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025? Jan 02 $1 $0 -65%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 01 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 31 $89 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 29 $3 $0 -15%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 29 $87 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 28 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 26 $92 $0 +0%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than Dec 24 $91 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 20 $93 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 11 $93 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 09 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 08 $92 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 05 $90 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Dec 02 $90 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 26 $90 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $94 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $81 1h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 99¢ $82 6d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL No 0¢ $0 9d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 0¢ $1 11d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 11d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $81 11d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $81 14d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 16d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $81 16d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $81 18d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 18d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 19d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $85 19d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 24d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $84 35d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $84 104d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 104d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 106d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 106d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 106d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 112d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 112d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 113d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 113d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 125d
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $84 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.10 · official $1.10 (match) · 308 history records