Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:33:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
38 0x38ef…33c0 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-3%) realized −$19 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$24
crypto 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.0% -11.4% 71% 71% -14.0%
≤30d 7 -2.0% -11.4% 71% 71% -14.0%
≤90d 7 -2.0% -11.4% 71% 71% -14.0%
all 7 -2.0% -11.4% 71% 71% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 71% -14.0%
10% -19.9% 57% -22.3%
15% -27.6% 57% -29.8%
20% -34.7% 0% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$70 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$37 +37%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $81 +$32 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$8 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 27h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $40 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $40 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $40 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.76 · official $158.77 (match) · 19 history records