Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:08:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38f1…9ff1 other 520 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,450 (-1%) realized −$4,452 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%293W / 316L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,057per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Fees−$4,303est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 100d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$9,860
other 49% +$2,634
world 0% +$1,342
crypto 0% +$281
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 155 -46.8% -51.9% 26% 26% -71.3%
≤30d 290 -26.6% -33.6% 40% 37% -33.7%
≤90d 571 -16.0% -24.0% 47% 46% -24.1%
all 609 -14.7% -22.8% 48% 46% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.8% 46% -23.5%
10% -30.2% 43% -30.8%
15% ← realistic here -36.9% 36% -37.5%
20% -43.1% 28% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,220) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$557 vs −$846 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$4,452
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses293 / 316
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$4,303
Open positions1
Markets (closed)609 / 520
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$1,057
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 609 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert Jack Draper 28¢ 28¢ $93 $95 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 265 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-29? Jun 26 $1,260 −$1,260 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-09-27? Jun 26 $1,099 −$1,099 -100%
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5) Jun 26 $300 −$300 -100%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $750 −$750 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-07? Jun 26 $410 −$410 -100%
Will AZ win on 2025-09-21? Jun 26 $1,509 −$1,509 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-12-06? Jun 26 $600 −$600 -100%
Spread: Manchester City (-1.5) Jun 26 $2,007 −$2,007 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-28? Jun 26 $2,280 −$2,280 -100%
RCD Mallorca vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 26 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-27? Jun 26 $97 −$97 -100%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Jun 26 $670 −$670 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-10? Jun 26 $880 −$880 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-10-18? Jun 26 $1,920 −$1,920 -100%
Will Monaco win on 2025-09-18? Jun 26 $1,162 −$1,162 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2025-12-27? Jun 26 $1,180 −$1,180 -100%
Spread: Stade Brestois 29 (-1.5) Jun 26 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-09-27? Jun 26 $433 −$433 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? Jun 26 $940 −$940 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01? Jun 26 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-03? Jun 26 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-31? Jun 26 $1,180 −$1,180 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-09-20? Jun 26 $1,767 −$1,767 -100%
Will PSV win on 2025-09-21? Jun 26 $1,220 −$1,220 -100%
Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-03-15? Jun 26 $520 −$520 -100%
Will Fulham win on 2025-09-13? Jun 26 $2,171 −$2,188 -101%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? Jun 26 $402 −$402 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-09-27? Jun 26 $2,486 −$2,486 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Jun 26 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-27? Jun 26 $1,290 −$1,290 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-1.5) Jun 26 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Jun 26 $540 −$540 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-24? Jun 26 $920 −$920 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-09-18? Jun 26 $1,711 −$1,711 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-09? Jun 26 $800 −$800 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-15? Jun 26 $440 −$440 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04? Jun 26 $1,220 −$1,220 -100%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-01? Jun 26 $1,530 −$1,530 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-14? Jun 26 $1,040 −$1,040 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-04? Jun 26 $520 −$520 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-13? Jun 26 $1,370 −$1,370 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-03-15? Jun 26 $630 −$630 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-03? Jun 26 $960 −$960 -100%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) Jun 26 $1,359 −$1,359 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-02? Jun 26 $1,830 −$1,830 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-09-27? Jun 26 $403 −$403 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-09-13? Jun 26 $2,663 −$2,663 -100%
Will PSV win on 2026-03-14? Jun 26 $670 −$670 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5) Jun 26 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Jack Draper 28¢ $95 6m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 57¢ $190 20m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 42¢ $76 32m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 41¢ $61 33m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel SELL Toby Samuel 10¢ $32 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel SELL Toby Samuel 11¢ $36 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 41¢ $46 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 43¢ $15 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 43¢ $8 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 43¢ $5 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 43¢ $19 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 45¢ $50 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 40¢ $116 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 39¢ $15 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 40¢ $2 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Tatjana Maria 48¢ $162 6h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 37¢ $251 6h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Tatjana Maria 49¢ $163 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $1,558 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 28¢ $221 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 28¢ $10 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 57¢ $1,281 18h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 19¢ $3 19h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 27¢ $153 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 95¢ $474 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 95¢ $53 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 90¢ $499 19h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 39¢ $216 19h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 43¢ $239 19h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 55¢ $305 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.87 · official $94.91 (match) · 3500 history records