Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:58:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x38f2…ed3f
crypto · 413 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$219 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$220 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$111
Realized−$220
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses236 / 172
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions5
Markets (closed)408 / 413
History coverage62d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day35.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 5 History 408 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days−$78
14 days−$103
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 74¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Down 60¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+66%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$11 -86%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$5 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +35%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$3 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$1 -20%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +58%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -31%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 42% +$47
crypto 39% −$143
weather 10% −$108
politics 5% $0
other 2% −$3
economics 1% $0
tech 0% −$13
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 7m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $8 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $4 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $0 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 17m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 21m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $0 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $0 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $0 30m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 30m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 229 +0.3% -9.3% 63% 37% -14.4%
≤30d 239 -1.8% -11.2% 61% 36% -15.7%
≤90d 408 -7.6% -16.4% 58% 34% -14.0%
all 408 -7.6% -16.4% 58% 34% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover35.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 34% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 23% -22.2%
15% -31.7% 14% -29.7%
20% -38.4% 9% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.47 · official $110.92 (match) · 2641 history records