Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:24:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
38 0x38f3…3821 other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+3%) realized +$18 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate50%27W / 27L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$14
world 21% +$7
politics 12% −$2
sports 9% $0
crypto 7% $0
economics 5% $0
tech 5% $0
culture 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -5.2% -14.2% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 5 +16.8% +5.7% 40% 40% -4.9%
≤90d 5 +16.8% +5.7% 40% 40% -4.9%
all 54 +1.6% -8.0% 50% 6% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 6% -6.4%
10% -16.8% 4% -15.4%
15% -24.9% 4% -23.6%
20% -32.2% 4% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.61 per $1 lost it wins $6.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses27 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage459d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 46¢ 47¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $2 $0 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $44 +$7 +15%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $7 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $36 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 19 $11 +$13 +118%
Will the National Council for the Defense of Democracy – Forces for th Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 03 $1 $0 -22%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 30 $1 $0 +8%
Will Solana dip to $140 in May? May 30 $11 $0 -2%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 29 $24 $0 +0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? May 29 $12 $0 +3%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 20 $5 $0 -2%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 18 $2 $0 -19%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 18 $9 $0 +3%
Will Albania be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? May 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Finland be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 16 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 12 $2 $0 -24%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 11 $2 $0 +4%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in April? May 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? May 07 $10 $0 -0%
Ukraine lowers conscription age before May 9? May 07 $1 $0 +9%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 07 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can May 06 $11 $0 +4%
Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? Apr 26 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 20? Apr 21 $10 $0 +5%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 20 $7 $0 -1%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $41 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $42 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $4 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $38 12h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $0 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $2 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 30¢ $2 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $5 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $3 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $11 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $9 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 17¢ $25 10d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 42¢ $19 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $12 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $7 13d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 95¢ $1 354d
Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect SELL No $0 384d
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 46¢ $11 384d
Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect SELL No $1 385d
Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect BUY No $1 385d
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 91¢ $11 385d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.28 · official $41.83 (match) · 193 history records