Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:29:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x38f4…1ee5
crypto · 1586 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$55 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$58 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$58
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses835 / 750
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1585 / 1586
History coverage40d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1585 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$387
14 days−$271
30 days−$534
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 549 -24.7% -31.9% 37% 37% -31.4%
≤30d 1130 -32.6% -39.0% 34% 34% -27.3%
≤90d 1585 +1.1% -8.6% 53% 53% -8.0%
all 1585 +1.1% -8.6% 53% 53% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 53% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 53% -16.8%
15% -25.3% 53% -24.8%
20% -32.6% 53% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.45 (match) · 3500 history records