Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:54:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x38f5…6824
politics · 430 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$5,696 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$13,566 · open −$8,652
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$33,632
Realized+$13,566
Unrealized−$8,652
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses183 / 191
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions64
Markets (closed)374 / 430
History coverage47d
Avg bet$374
Trades / day69.1
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 64 History 374 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$910
7 days−$1,320
14 days+$940
30 days+$10,745
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $12,500 $21,212 +$8,712 (+70%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $12,500 $3,788 −$8,712 (-70%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $2,321 $2,415 +$94 (+4%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $1,210 $1,130 −$80 (-7%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $890 $915 +$25 (+3%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $379 $418 +$38 (+10%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 68¢ 66¢ $391 $380 −$11 (-3%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $316 $312 −$3 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $284 $294 +$9 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $272 $275 +$2 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $258 $263 +$5 (+2%)
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $194 $200 +$7 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Yes 92¢ 93¢ $181 $183 +$2 (+1%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 33¢ 36¢ $163 $180 +$17 (+11%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 28, 2026? Yes 92¢ 93¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? No 51¢ 62¢ $116 $140 +$25 (+21%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $122 $121 −$1 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $90 $92 +$2 (+3%)
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? No 72¢ 84¢ $79 $92 +$13 (+16%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Megyn Kelly by June 30, 2026? No 60¢ 72¢ $73 $89 +$16 (+21%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Norah O'Donnell by June 30, 2026? No 64¢ 62¢ $81 $79 −$2 (-3%)
Will Donald Trump dance on June 14, 2026? No 58¢ 50¢ $90 $77 −$12 (-14%)
Will Petr Yan fight Merab Dvalishvili next? Yes 84¢ 64¢ $96 $73 −$23 (-24%)
Will Trump say "Nuke" this week? No 86¢ 86¢ $58 $57 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026? No 76¢ 74¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will "How to Make a Killing" score at least 59 on the Rotten Tomatoes Jun 12 $30 −$4 -12%
Will "How to Make a Killing" score at least 56 on the Rotten Tomatoes Jun 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Will "How to Make a Killing" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Jun 12 $44 −$44 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $63 −$5 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $57 +$13 +22%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 12 $190 +$54 +28%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $922 +$252 +27%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $1,576 +$1,580 +100%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $280 −$17 -6%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $25 +$30 +117%
Will Trump say "Star" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $34 +$17 +52%
Will Trump say "Georgia" 10+ times during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $25 +$42 +166%
Will Trump say "Knicks" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $43 +$7 +17%
Will Trump say "Fraud" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $19 +$31 +157%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +89%
Will Trump say "Iran" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $38 +$12 +32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $532 +$932 +175%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 11 $384 +$35 +9%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs LOUD (+1.5) Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $67 +$23 +34%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $0 +$5 +4900%
Will Trump say "Radical Left" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 11 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Trump say "Football" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Trump say "Job" 2+ times during Tele-Rallies? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Trump announce John Ratcliffe as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $2,000 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Pete Hoekstra as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $4,000 −$2,000 -50%
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intellig Jun 11 $300 −$150 -50%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $3,007 +$2 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $323 −$1 -0%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Anas Mazdrashki vs David Eichenseher Jun 11 $216 +$38 +18%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $493 +$19 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $785 −$32 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $23 +$8 +34%
Will Mark Warner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 10 $4,235 $0 +0%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $116 +$241 +207%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $46 +$3 +6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $110 +$11 +10%
Will Trump praise Allah by June 30? Jun 10 $93 +$3 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $228 +$22 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 10 $43 +$2 +5%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m and 14m? Jun 10 $3,016 +$1 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $7 +$1 +17%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $111 +$3 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$1 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 31% −$6,223
world 25% +$2,670
other 20% +$2,853
crypto 11% +$3,343
economics 4% +$2,937
culture 4% $0
finance 3% +$205
sports 2% −$693
tech 1% −$18
weather 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 33¢ $59 0m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Alex Jones by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $12 1m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 22¢ $70 34m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $4 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $59 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $53 3h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $263 3h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $200 3h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $127 3h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $72 3h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 3h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $57 4h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 5h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 5h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $204 5h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 44¢ $71 5h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 6h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 6h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $2,634 6h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $14 6h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $28 6h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? BUY Yes 77¢ $190 6h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 52¢ $166 6h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $7 6h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $42 6h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $59 6h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 57¢ $153 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +50.0% +35.7% 57% 38% -12.8%
≤30d 284 +35.6% +22.7% 48% 36% +1.0%
≤90d 374 +32.3% +19.7% 49% 35% +1.5%
all 374 +32.3% +19.7% 49% 35% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover69.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.7% 35% +1.5%
10% ← realistic here +8.2% 28% -8.2%
15% -2.2% 21% -17.0%
20% -11.8% 18% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33,631.67 · official $33,631.89 (match) · 3500 history records