Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

38 0x38f5…03ad other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$578 (+9%) realized +$588 · open −$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR28%break-even

Win rate28%5W / 13L

Drawdown48%max

Avg bet$300per market

Trades / day5.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit5%portable

Net worth$670now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$256

7 days+$743

14 days+$550

30 days+$550

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +28%

net ROI/market (all)-17.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	-6.6%	-15.5%	25%	25%	+15.3%
≤30d	18	-9.1%	-17.8%	28%	28%	+6.2%
≤90d	18	-9.1%	-17.8%	28%	28%	+6.2%
all	18	-9.1%	-17.8%	28%	28%	+6.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-17.8%	28%	+6.2%
10%	-25.6%	28%	-4.0%
15%	-32.8%	28%	-13.2%
20%	-39.4%	17%	-21.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 63% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -68% → late +50% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$349 vs −$92 · ×3.8 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.46 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$670

Realized+$588

Unrealized−$10

Win rate (resolved)28%

Wins / losses5 / 13

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)18 / 21

History coverage8d

Avg bet$300

Trades / day5.2

Drawdown48%

Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$623	$618	−$5 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	16¢	16¢	$48	$46	−$1 (-3%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$10	$6	−$4 (-39%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$93	−$92	-98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$330	−$131	-40%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$2,206	+$579	+26%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$103	−$100	-97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$47	−$46	-98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$49	−$47	-97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$102	+$129	+127%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$36	−$35	-97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$780	+$516	+66%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$8	−$8	-97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 14	$21	−$20	-97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$149	−$146	-98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$904	+$439	+49%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$98	−$95	-98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$280	−$275	-98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$199	+$82	+41%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	16¢	$49	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	62¢	$101	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	62¢	$529	2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$93	22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	6¢	$26	30h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	25¢	$102	38h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	18¢	$102	38h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	7¢	$103	39h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	72¢	$710	39h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	72¢	$2,021	39h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$663	46h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$115	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$47	2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	23¢	$47	2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	7¢	$49	3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	24¢	$49	3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	24¢	$102	4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	41¢	$224	4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	55¢	$968	4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$91	4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	55¢	$196	5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	22¢	$91	5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	23¢	$100	5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	55¢	$162	5d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	5d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	5¢	$31	5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	88¢	$1,296	5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$780	5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$3	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $670.02 · official $670.02 (match) · 44 history records