Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:15:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
38 0x38f8…e3ff sports 206 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$419 (+1%) realized +$447 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate87%178W / 27L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$180
7 days−$184
14 days−$35
30 days+$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$365
other 0% +$9
world 0% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -2.2% -11.5% 93% 0% -12.2%
≤30d 85 +1.7% -8.0% 93% 6% -9.0%
≤90d 162 +18.8% +7.5% 91% 16% -8.3%
all 205 +13.1% +2.3% 87% 19% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 19% -8.2%
10% -7.5% 10% -17.0%
15% -16.4% 7% -25.0%
20% -24.6% 6% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$15 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$447
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses178 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)205 / 206
History coverage125d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ACC ODI Challenger Cup: Malaysia vs Thailand - Who wins the toss? Thailand 99¢ 50¢ $57 $29 −$28 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 18 $597 +$3 +0%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi - Most Sixes Draw Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi - Toss Match Double Br Jun 17 $19 $0 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi - Who wins the toss? Jun 17 $90 +$1 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi - Completed match? Jun 17 $297 +$3 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 17 $54 +$1 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 17 $129 +$3 +2%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $303 −$192 -64%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi Jun 15 $247 +$2 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria - Completed match? Jun 15 $268 +$3 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria - Who wins the toss? Jun 15 $151 +$1 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $268 +$3 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $183 +$2 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil - Toss Match Double Br Jun 14 $114 +$1 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil - Who wins the toss? Jun 14 $181 +$2 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 14 $182 +$2 +1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates - Who win Jun 13 $191 +$2 +1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates Jun 13 $85 $0 +0%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Jun 12 $741 +$10 +1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs United Arab Emirates - Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs United Arab Emirates Jun 12 $740 +$6 +1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Thailand Jun 12 $110 +$1 +1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Thailand - Who wins the toss? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi Jun 11 $636 +$6 +1%
ACC ODI Challenger Cup: Thailand vs Bhutan Jun 11 $235 −$48 -20%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: United Arab Emirates vs Malaysia - Toss Ma Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: United Arab Emirates vs Malaysia - Who win Jun 10 $155 +$2 +1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Oman - Who wins the toss? Jun 10 $118 +$1 +1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: United Arab Emirates vs Malaysia Jun 10 $490 +$14 +3%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs Japan - Who wins the t Jun 10 $171 +$2 +1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs Nepal - Toss Match Double Nepa Jun 10 $140 +$2 +1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs Nepal - Who wins the toss? Jun 10 $176 +$2 +1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Mongolia vs Myanmar - Toss Match Double My Jun 09 $846 +$8 +1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Saudi Arabia Jun 09 $17 −$11 -64%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 08 $844 +$2 +0%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bahrain vs Japan Jun 07 $376 +$104 +28%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs United Arab Emirates - Who wins t Jun 07 $163 +$2 +1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Myanmar vs Thailand Jun 07 $508 +$7 +1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Myanmar vs Thailand - Who wins the toss? Jun 07 $175 +$2 +1%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Canada vs USA - Who wins the toss? Jun 06 $113 +$1 +1%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Canada vs USA Jun 06 $4 $0 -2%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Kuwait vs Singapore Jun 06 $128 +$1 +1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Oman vs Saudi Arabia Jun 06 $14 +$2 +11%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bhutan vs Qatar Jun 06 $36 +$1 +2%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Japan vs Myanmar - Who wins the toss? Jun 06 $99 +$1 +1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Japan vs Myanmar - Completed match? Jun 06 $99 +$1 +1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Malaysia vs Indonesia - Toss Match Double Jun 06 $53 +$1 +1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Malaysia vs Indonesia - Completed match? Jun 06 $99 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ACC ODI Challenger Cup: Malaysia vs Thailand - Who wins the toss? BUY Thailand 99¢ $57 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 100¢ $597 9h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi - Most Sixes Draw BUY Yes 99¢ $50 15h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi - Toss Match Double Br BUY No 99¢ $19 18h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi - Who wins the toss? BUY Malawi 99¢ $90 18h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 99¢ $5 22h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 99¢ $44 22h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY No 99¢ $54 23h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 97¢ $80 23h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Yes 99¢ $99 23h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 36¢ $111 37h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 98¢ $301 38h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 98¢ $2 38h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi - Completed match? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi - Completed match? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi - Completed match? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi BUY Rwanda 99¢ $64 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi BUY Rwanda 99¢ $182 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria - Who wins the toss? BUY Brazil 99¢ $151 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Rwanda 99¢ $183 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria - Completed match? BUY Yes 99¢ $268 3d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Yes 99¢ $268 3d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 100¢ $100 3d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil - Toss Match Double Br BUY No 99¢ $114 3d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil - Who wins the toss? BUY Rwanda 99¢ $181 3d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 99¢ $182 3d
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates BUY Thailand 100¢ $85 4d
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates - Who win BUY Thailand 99¢ $191 5d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 100¢ $106 5d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 100¢ $201 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.10 · official $29.10 (match) · 663 history records