Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38fd…a676 crypto 12 markets active 3d ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-22%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$3
other 23% −$2
sports 18% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -25.2% -32.3% 25% 17% -32.1%
≤30d 12 -25.2% -32.3% 25% 17% -32.1%
≤90d 12 -25.2% -32.3% 25% 17% -32.1%
all 12 -25.2% -32.3% 25% 17% -32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 17% -32.1%
10% -38.8% 8% -38.6%
15% -44.7% 8% -44.6%
20% -50.1% 8% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $3 $0 -14%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 $0 -12%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +76%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 11 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 5d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 78¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 77¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 74¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 75¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 74¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 72¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 72¢ $1 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 5d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records