Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:27:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38fd…c6bb other 370 markets active 1h ago coverage 596d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,916 (-2%) realized −$2,018 · open +$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate65%203W / 109L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$6,341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$68
14 days−$42
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$185
politics 21% −$24
other 17% −$1,081
world 11% −$243
finance 3% +$43
tech 2% −$515
sports 2% +$46
economics 0% +$6
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +8.4% -1.9% 69% 46% -3.5%
≤30d 73 -0.6% -10.1% 70% 26% -9.2%
≤90d 274 -14.1% -22.3% 64% 15% -12.0%
all 312 -12.5% -20.9% 65% 14% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 14% -11.5%
10% -28.4% 10% -19.9%
15% -35.3% 6% -27.7%
20% -41.7% 5% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$53 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$6,341
Realized−$2,018
Unrealized+$102
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses203 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions58
Markets (closed)312 / 370
History coverage596d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 58 History 312 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $714 $720 +$6 (+1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $281 $282 +$2 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $282 $281 −$1 (-0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $235 $239 +$4 (+2%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 93¢ 92¢ $231 $229 −$3 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $194 $200 +$5 (+3%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $197 $199 +$2 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 91¢ 99¢ $182 $199 +$17 (+9%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $182 $192 +$10 (+6%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $191 $190 −$1 (-1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $184 $183 −$1 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 80¢ 88¢ $160 $175 +$15 (+9%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $169 $171 +$1 (+1%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 73¢ 84¢ $146 $169 +$23 (+16%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $154 $158 +$4 (+2%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $145 $151 +$6 (+4%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $146 $147 +$1 (+0%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 97¢ $138 $145 +$7 (+5%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $117 $119 +$3 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $104 $113 +$9 (+9%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $110 $111 +$1 (+1%)
SBF released from custody in 2026? No 92¢ 95¢ $102 $106 +$4 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $96 $100 +$4 (+4%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will Phantom launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $95 $99 +$4 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $78 −$38 -49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $138 +$39 +28%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $148 +$2 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 17 $190 +$8 +4%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $40 +$10 +24%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $90 +$10 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $86 +$14 +16%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $27 +$73 +276%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$49 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $35 −$18 -52%
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $106 +$44 +42%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 10 $165 +$10 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 5? Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $56 +$24 +42%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $75 −$72 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $32 −$30 -94%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $120 +$30 +24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 02 $150 +$6 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $348 −$40 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $54 +$10 +18%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 02 $64 +$34 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $150 −$132 -88%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $184 −$184 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $70 −$69 -99%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $19 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $134 +$11 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $316 +$26 +8%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? Jun 01 $46 +$4 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $88 +$12 +13%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 01 $195 +$5 +3%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 01 $298 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 01 $391 +$9 +2%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $134 +$3 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $143 +$7 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $234 +$5 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $162 +$38 +23%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $37 +$302 +809%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 30 $284 +$15 +5%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 30 $1,177 +$9 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? May 30 $495 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $22 +$38 +178%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $165 +$5 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $69 −$68 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $88 +$12 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $52 47m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 40¢ $40 1h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $47 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $198 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 55¢ $28 23h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 95¢ $48 43h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 95¢ $30 43h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 95¢ $17 43h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $43 43h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $38 43h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $5 43h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $2 45h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $191 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 91¢ $91 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $32 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $9 2d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $36 2d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $86 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $78 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $138 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $41 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $107 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $66 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,340.57 · official $6,340.57 (match) · 2385 history records