Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:54:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
38 0x38fe…4c18 world 368 markets active 4d ago coverage 99d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 99d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17,956 (+2%) realized +$17,759 · open +$197
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate74%272W / 94L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$2,596per market
Trades / day32.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$5,840now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$2,781
30 days+$5,914
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$10,838
other 16% +$3,980
politics 9% +$1,068
tech 3% +$396
crypto 2% +$1,404
finance 1% +$176
sports 0% +$41
culture 0% −$14
economics 0% −$5
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +5.4% -4.6% 100% 0% -4.6%
≤30d 66 -4.5% -13.6% 77% 9% -6.7%
≤90d 312 +1.4% -8.2% 74% 11% -7.9%
all 366 +1.2% -8.5% 74% 10% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 10% -7.8%
10% -17.2% 5% -16.6%
15% ← realistic here -25.2% 3% -24.7%
20% -32.5% 2% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$2,219) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$36 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.51 per $1 lost it wins $6.51
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$5,840
Realized+$17,759
Unrealized+$197
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses272 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)366 / 368
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$2,596
Trades / day32.9
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 366 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $5,633 $5,839 +$206 (+4%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes 20¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? Jun 21 $102 +$6 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $37,703 +$1,559 +4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1,029 +$31 +3%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $6 −$2 -23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $7,841 −$135 -2%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,910 +$14 +1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $13 $0 +1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $1,431 +$27 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $21,570 +$313 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $6,355 +$91 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $1,929 +$375 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $163 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $2,219 −$498 -22%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $67 +$4 +5%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $2,867 +$155 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $114 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $4,818 +$69 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $960 +$30 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,442 +$8 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $6,884 +$506 +7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $2,052 +$67 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $5,938 +$164 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $116 +$15 +13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $27 −$1 -4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $17 +$3 +20%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $88 +$8 +9%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $69 −$14 -20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $6,007 +$50 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $470 +$28 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $95 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $18 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $460 −$45 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $281 −$1 -0%
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460? Jun 06 $90 +$26 +29%
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440? Jun 05 $13 −$13 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $18,181 +$1,410 +8%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $5 +$1 +15%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 02 $2,663 +$161 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $891 +$4 +0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 02 $5,658 +$148 +3%
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May? Jun 01 $9 +$4 +41%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $1,187 +$7 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $5,604 +$109 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $1,043 +$61 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $5,804 +$463 +8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $4,464 +$66 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 31 $16 +$1 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 31 $1,740 +$43 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $2,134 +$39 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $54 4d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $49 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $807 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $8,685 8d
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? SELL Yes 99¢ $8,684 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5,689 8d
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,761 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $465 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $654 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $275 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $943 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $2,580 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $788 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $23 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $454 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $4,275 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $476 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $952 9d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 1¢ $2 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 99¢ $2,187 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 99¢ $20 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 99¢ $37 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 99¢ $7 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 99¢ $4 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 99¢ $3 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,039 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 99¢ $2,258 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,902 9d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,700 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,840.20 · official $5,840.20 (match) · 3500 history records