Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:53:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38fe…03d2 crypto 673 markets active 3h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$26 (-2%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate50%335W / 338L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day48.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$11
14 days−$14
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 -7.9% -16.6% 72% 22% -10.7%
≤30d 653 -4.3% -13.4% 50% 37% -12.6%
≤90d 673 -5.0% -14.1% 50% 36% -12.9%
all 673 -5.0% -14.1% 50% 36% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 36% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 32% -21.2%
15% -29.8% 21% -28.8%
20% -36.7% 12% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses335 / 338
Open positions0
Markets (closed)673 / 673
History coverage34d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day48.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 673 Trades
no open positions (156 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.07 · official $0.00 · 1877 history records