Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:26:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

39 0x3902…b488 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 252d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$29 (+3%) realized +$29 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip

Net edge+2%after slip

Net WR5%break-even

Win rate30%6W / 14L

Drawdown4%max

Avg bet$42per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days−$1

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +5%

net ROI/market (all)+2.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	2	+0.2%	-9.3%	50%	0%	-9.8%
≤90d	2	+0.2%	-9.3%	50%	0%	-9.8%
all	20	+13.0%	+2.3%	30%	5%	-6.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+2.3%	5%	-6.3%
10%	-7.5%	5%	-15.2%
15%	-16.4%	5%	-23.4%
20%	-24.6%	5%	-30.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 99% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% too few recent

Fragile wins

83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +13% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +0% → late +26% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$1 · ×10.0 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×14.99 per $1 lost it wins $14.99

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage

Net worth$49

Realized+$29

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)30%

Wins / losses6 / 14

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 21

History coverage252d

Avg bet$42

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown4%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	94¢	94¢	$49	$49	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma	May 25	$27	$0	+1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	May 25	$158	−$1	-1%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03?	Dec 11	$12	+$31	+270%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30?	Nov 26	$94	$0	-0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Nov 26	$8	−$1	-10%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30?	Nov 26	$84	$0	+0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29?	Nov 26	$126	$0	+0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02?	Nov 25	$36	$0	+0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03?	Nov 25	$37	$0	-0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03?	Nov 25	$26	$0	+0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Nov 25	$6	$0	+0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03?	Nov 25	$7	$0	+0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02?	Nov 24	$8	$0	+0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03?	Nov 24	$13	$0	+0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Nov 22	$25	$0	+0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23?	Nov 22	$5	$0	+0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29?	Nov 22	$80	$0	+0%
Panthers vs. 49ers	Nov 21	$24	$0	+0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30?	Nov 21	$24	$0	+0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026?	Oct 08	$24	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY No	94¢	$49	1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma	SELL No	96¢	$10	22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma	SELL No	95¢	$18	22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma	BUY No	94¢	$27	23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	SELL No	77¢	$56	23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY No	74¢	$53	23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	SELL No	52¢	$34	23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	SELL No	52¢	$15	23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY No	57¢	$38	23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY No	57¢	$15	23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	SELL No	66¢	$38	24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	SELL No	67¢	$15	24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY No	64¢	$13	24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	BUY No	64¢	$38	24d
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30?	SELL No	71¢	$13	203d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03?	BUY No	27¢	$1	203d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03?	BUY No	27¢	$10	203d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03?	BUY No	27¢	$1	203d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?	SELL Yes	9¢	$7	203d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30?	SELL No	61¢	$4	203d
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30?	BUY No	73¢	$14	203d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29?	SELL Yes	79¢	$13	203d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29?	BUY Yes	79¢	$13	203d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30?	SELL No	61¢	$13	203d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30?	BUY No	61¢	$17	203d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02?	SELL No	81¢	$17	203d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02?	BUY No	81¢	$17	203d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29?	SELL Yes	79¢	$8	203d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29?	SELL Yes	79¢	$6	203d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29?	SELL Yes	79¢	$3	203d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.01 · official $49.01 (match) · 150 history records