Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:24:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3902…9691 sports 24 markets active 19h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$177 (-9%) realized −$177 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate71%17W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$18
other 41% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -3.8% -12.9% 71% 58% -13.4%
≤30d 24 -3.8% -12.9% 71% 58% -13.4%
≤90d 24 -3.8% -12.9% 71% 58% -13.4%
all 24 -3.8% -12.9% 71% 58% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 58% -13.4%
10% -21.3% 38% -21.7%
15% -28.9% 33% -29.2%
20% -35.8% 12% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$65 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$177
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses17 / 7
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage3d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $365 −$162 -44%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$49 +48%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $82 +$28 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $51 +$40 +79%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 −$77 -76%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$21 +20%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $111 +$51 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $110 +$12 +11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $201 +$3 +1%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 72¢ $85 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 67¢ $78 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 33¢ $86 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $201 33h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $51 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $151 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 38h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $82 44h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $51 45h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $51 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $24 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $118 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $3 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 47¢ $6 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $50 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records