Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:47:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3902…43f8 other 555 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$131 (+1%) realized +$127 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%218W / 327L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$107
14 days−$24
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$450
sports 22% −$57
crypto 17% −$307
tech 16% +$245
politics 3% −$225
finance 2% +$19
culture 1% −$25
world 0% +$6
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +44.2% +30.5% 13% 13% -41.1%
≤30d 27 +23.8% +12.0% 26% 26% -5.0%
≤90d 252 -9.0% -17.7% 48% 47% -9.6%
all 545 -1.9% -11.2% 40% 39% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 39% -9.4%
10% -19.7% 33% -18.1%
15% -27.5% 27% -26.0%
20% -34.6% 22% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$15 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$127
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses218 / 327
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)545 / 555
History coverage238d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 545 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 59¢ 78¢ $60 $80 +$20 (+33%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 10¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-56%)
Anthropic CEO arrested? Yes $12 $1 −$11 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15 +$68 +442%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $34 −$34 -100%
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $7 +$109 +1521%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $60 +$56 +94%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 +$27 +134%
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 25 $34 −$34 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $33 +$71 +216%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 19 $31 +$43 +140%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 19 $52 +$50 +97%
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown? May 10 $17 −$17 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-07? May 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO? May 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-07? May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Sebastian Ofner May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $20 +$35 +172%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-07? May 10 $31 +$42 +137%
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelim May 07 $15 +$13 +86%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $8 −$8 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card) May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-02? May 04 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main C May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics May 04 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Mai May 04 $13 −$13 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 04 $53 +$42 +80%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $42 +$44 +105%
UFC Fight Night: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight, Main C May 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev May 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 18¢ $26 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $51 3h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $26 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $56 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 33¢ $34 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 54¢ $56 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY 33¢ $31 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 18¢ $15 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Net BUY 16¢ $10 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 22¢ $23 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $7 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 33¢ $34 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 56¢ $25 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 70¢ $71 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $35 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 42¢ $20 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 14d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 30¢ $10 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 12¢ $8 21d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 12¢ $4 21d
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? BUY Yes $5 21d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 25d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 11¢ $11 25d
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? BUY Yes $2 26d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 33¢ $34 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.58 · official $58.13 · 1253 history records