Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:11:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3903…7731 politics 172 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,244 (-1%) realized −$1,244 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate18%30W / 140L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,139per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$455now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$22
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$81
politics 35% −$79
sports 19% −$1,060
economics 3% −$7
world 2% −$43
tech 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 36 -6.0% -15.0% 11% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 115 -12.2% -20.6% 6% 3% -11.0%
all 170 -1.6% -11.0% 18% 8% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 8% -10.1%
10% -19.5% 8% -18.7%
15% -27.3% 8% -26.6%
20% -34.4% 5% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,788) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$17 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$455
Realized−$1,244
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses30 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)170 / 172
History coverage145d
Avg bet$1,139
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $293 $292 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $162 $163 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 22 $250 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $228 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,048 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $600 +$2 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $3,063 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,510 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $151 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $725 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $4,617 −$5 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $4,124 −$4 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,811 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,225 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,246 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $259 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $271 $0 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,760 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,962 −$3 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $68 +$59 +86%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,110 −$2 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,006 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 02 $312 +$1 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,661 −$2 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $59 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $4,258 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,303 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1,415 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1,139 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $306 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $517 −$1 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 23 $42 +$32 +76%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 22 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $611 −$1 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $38 +$16 +44%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $857 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $836 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $813 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $1,539 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 17 $1,759 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $3,232 −$4 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $879 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $2,402 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $293 2h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $249 7h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $250 8h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $394 30h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $395 30h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 4d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $228 4d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $333 4d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $334 4d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $149 4d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $149 5d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $156 5d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $156 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 11d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $151 11d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $151 11d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $105 11d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $105 12d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $135 12d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $135 12d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $162 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $214 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $214 13d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $215 13d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $216 13d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $266 13d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $266 13d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $302 13d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $303 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $455.19 · official $455.19 (match) · 604 history records