Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:35:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
39 0x3904…c746 politics 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 635d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 79L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% −$12
other 29% −$5
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 79 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

635d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)79 / 79
History coverage635d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 79 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 26 $51 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $51 −$1 -1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $105 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $106 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $53 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Mar 29 $53 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 21 $53 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $53 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 10 $54 $0 -1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 01 $54 $0 -0%
Will Wolves finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League? Feb 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tim Vieira win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Nov 24 $52 $0 -0%
Will Dejounte Murray lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Rudy Gobert lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Edwards lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Patrick Mahomes win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Fed emergency rate cut in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Mark Zuckerberg out as Facebook CEO in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Lamar Jackson be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity not be proven in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Lions win the NFC North? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Kyler Murray win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will FTX payouts start in Q4 2024? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Georgia win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Southampton be relegated? Dec 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will Dinamo Zagreb win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 20 $0 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? Dec 20 $0 $0 -0%
1-25 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Democrats win popular vote by 7% or more? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Laphonza Butler be the next DNC chair? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will 'Short n' Sweet' win Album of the Year? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Christian McCaffrey be the top Fantasy Running Back? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the Western Conference? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Stuttgart win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 26 $0 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $51 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $51 13h
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 3d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $51 9d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $51 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $52 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $52 18d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 28d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 29d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $52 39d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $52 40d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 44d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 44d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 53d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 54d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $53 69d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 69d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $53 70d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $53 71d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 75d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 75d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 78d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 79d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar SELL No 100¢ $53 88d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar BUY No 100¢ $53 89d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 96d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 97d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 101d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $53 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 181 history records