Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:01:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x390a…9d70
crypto · 826 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$350 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$339 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized−$339
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses250 / 573
Open positions1
Markets (closed)823 / 826
History coverage276d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 1 History 823 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$20
14 days+$2
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 13¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - November 1, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - December 1, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$7 +660%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$4 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +61%
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 12 $16 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$23 +1074%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$2 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 03 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$5 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 03 $4 +$27 +650%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 86% −$279
other 13% −$80
sports 1% +$10
weather 0% +$10
finance 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 42m
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 13¢ $11 1h
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 13¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 2h
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 12¢ $26 11h
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 13¢ $16 13h
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 34¢ $14 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 15h
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 35¢ $5 15h
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 13¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 23h
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 35¢ $10 23h
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 13¢ $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -15.2% -23.3% 21% 21% -29.4%
≤30d 105 -10.5% -19.0% 24% 24% -13.4%
≤90d 352 -11.1% -19.5% 27% 26% -17.6%
all 823 -14.4% -22.6% 30% 29% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 29% -20.4%
10% -30.0% 26% -28.1%
15% -36.7% 24% -35.0%
20% -42.9% 21% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.23 · official $19.23 (match) · 1548 history records