Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:30:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x390b…24ca
other · 13 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$5 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)6 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit31%
Chart Positions 7 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Neymar score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +93%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 +$4 +76%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$3 +79%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 65% +$7
sports 35% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $6 3h
Will Neymar score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 70¢ $7 24h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 61¢ $5 24h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 27h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 28h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 28h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 45h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $5 45h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +14.8% +3.9% 67% 50% +11.6%
≤30d 6 +14.8% +3.9% 67% 50% +11.6%
≤90d 6 +14.8% +3.9% 67% 50% +11.6%
all 6 +14.8% +3.9% 67% 50% +11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 50% +11.6%
10% -6.1% 50% +0.9%
15% -15.1% 50% -8.8%
20% -23.5% 50% -17.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.20 · official $21.20 (match) · 20 history records