Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:46:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
39 0x3910…1520 sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 840d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,743 (-30%) realized −$1,755 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%3W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$462now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$191
7 days+$91
14 days+$91
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$1,919
politics 37% −$1
sports 7% +$141
other 4% −$16
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +22.9% +11.2% 25% 25% +35.2%
≤30d 12 +22.9% +11.2% 25% 25% +35.2%
≤90d 12 +22.9% +11.2% 25% 25% +35.2%
all 15 +14.1% +3.2% 20% 20% -40.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.2% 20% -40.0%
10% -6.7% 20% -45.7%
15% -15.7% 20% -51.0%
20% -24.0% 20% -55.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -66% → late +84% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$170 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

840d coverage
Net worth$462
Realized−$1,755
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses3 / 12
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions19
Markets (closed)15 / 34
History coverage840d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Curaçao 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 50¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Haiti 51¢ 50¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$20 -64%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 +$48 +225%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 +$66 +308%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$119 +558%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 27 $116 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? May 21 $2,059 $0 -0%
Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? May 21 $2,959 −$1,899 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 51¢ $20 2h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 51¢ $20 2h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 2h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $20 4h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 28h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 28h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 28h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 28h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 28h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 28h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 28h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $87 31h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 38h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $141 39h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 45h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 45h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $21 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $21 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $461.84 · official $461.85 (match) · 55 history records