Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:46:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3912…c081 crypto 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 562d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$250 (-3%) realized −$192 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate61%46W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$650now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$61
14 days−$177
30 days−$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$357
other 12% +$118
sports 4% −$34
politics 2% −$1
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -10.7% -19.2% 42% 42% -21.2%
≤30d 27 -14.0% -22.2% 41% 41% -36.6%
≤90d 27 -14.0% -22.2% 41% 41% -36.6%
all 75 -7.9% -16.7% 61% 32% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 32% -12.0%
10% -24.6% 17% -20.4%
15% -31.9% 17% -28.1%
20% -38.6% 13% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$45 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

562d coverage
Net worth$650
Realized−$192
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses46 / 29
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions16
Markets (closed)75 / 91
History coverage562d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $94 $80 −$14 (-14%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $30 $46 +$16 (+53%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 30¢ $35 $42 +$7 (+21%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $50 $37 −$12 (-25%)
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $50 $29 −$21 (-42%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 48¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 50¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will David Raya win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $31 $18 −$12 (-40%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $41 $4 −$36 (-89%)
Will Japan go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 50¢ 61¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +52%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$13 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$15 +76%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$10 +50%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 +$75 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $20 +$13 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $117 −$116 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 7AM ET Feb 05 $406 +$42 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 12PM ET Feb 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 1PM ET Feb 05 $262 −$262 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 12PM ET Feb 05 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6PM ET Feb 04 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5PM ET Feb 04 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11AM ET Feb 04 $499 +$62 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 10AM ET Feb 04 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8AM ET Feb 04 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 3PM ET Feb 02 $390 +$15 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 11AM ET Feb 02 $865 +$44 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 6AM ET Feb 02 $362 +$44 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 11PM ET Feb 02 $344 +$19 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 10PM ET Feb 02 $318 +$25 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 9PM ET Feb 02 $218 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 3PM ET Feb 01 $298 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 11AM ET Feb 01 $267 +$32 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 4AM ET Feb 01 $235 +$32 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 2AM ET Feb 01 $218 +$17 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 1AM ET Feb 01 $200 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 12AM ET Feb 01 $175 +$25 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2PM ET Feb 01 $109 −$55 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3PM ET Feb 01 $54 −$54 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $20 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 16h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $20 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $20 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 22h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $5 26h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $15 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 26h
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 32h
Will David Raya win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 2d
Will Japan go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $20 2d
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $45 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 2d
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $20 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $20 2d
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $41 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $650.42 · official $650.42 (match) · 376 history records