Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:13:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3916…aef5 crypto 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$72 (-2%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%32W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$586
7 days+$586
14 days+$586
30 days+$586
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$207
other 28% +$512
crypto 23% −$316
world 12% −$71
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +121.7% +100.6% 100% 100% +100.6%
≤30d 1 +121.7% +100.6% 100% 100% +100.6%
≤90d 47 -16.4% -24.3% 38% 38% -14.3%
all 72 -11.0% -19.4% 44% 40% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 40% -12.0%
10% -27.1% 38% -20.4%
15% -34.2% 33% -28.1%
20% -40.6% 25% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$30 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses32 / 40
Open positions4
Markets (closed)72 / 76
History coverage106d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 69¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? No 79¢ 79¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? No 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? No 35¢ 34¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $482 +$586 +122%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $196 −$17 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 27 $9 −$9 -95%
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? Apr 27 $6 +$3 +54%
Will Trump say "Iran" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? Apr 23 $146 −$146 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 17 $19 +$27 +139%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $10 −$3 -31%
Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26? Apr 12 $10 −$4 -35%
Will Leavitt say "Go ahead" 5+ times during the next White House press Apr 12 $3 +$3 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 31? Apr 05 $31 +$4 +14%
Will "Sam" or "Altman" be said during the next episode of the All-In P Apr 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Will "Sauna" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experie Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Fuck" or "Fucking" be said 10+ times during the first episode of Apr 05 $110 −$110 -100%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 05 $66 +$34 +52%
Will "People" be said 100+ times during the first episode of the Joe R Apr 05 $1 +$5 +548%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 2? Apr 02 $17 −$13 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 1? Apr 01 $10 +$8 +77%
Will Trump say "Oil" during executive order signing today? Apr 01 $23 +$15 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 31 $5 +$3 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 30? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 31 $30 −$10 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 30? Mar 31 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 30 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Trump say "Iran" during National Agriculture Day events? Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 30 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during the FII PRIORITY Summit? Mar 30 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 30 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Trump say "Cuba" during the FII PRIORITY Summit? Mar 30 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 29? Mar 30 $200 −$75 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 30 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during the FII PRIORITY Summit? Mar 30 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 29 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 29 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 29 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 29 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the FII PRIORITY Summit? Mar 28 $50 +$39 +79%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during the FII PRIORITY Summit? Mar 28 $100 +$67 +67%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during the FII PRIORITY Summit? Mar 28 $44 +$14 +32%
Will fewer than 2 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30? Mar 27 $17 −$1 -6%
Will Trump say "Iran" during Greek Independence Day event? Mar 27 $20 +$55 +282%
Will Trump say "Culture" or "Heritage" during Greek Independence Day e Mar 26 $8 +$2 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 69¢ $101 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $50 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 35¢ $8 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 67¢ $10 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $179 43d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 6¢ $180 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $9 58d
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? SELL No 41¢ $9 58d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $46 66d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 68d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 68d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 40¢ $42 68d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 74d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 74d
Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26? SELL No 10¢ $7 74d
Will Trump say "Iran" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? BUY No 36¢ $100 80d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 80d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 80d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 2? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 83d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 2? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 84d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 1? SELL Yes 46¢ $18 84d
Will Trump say "Iran" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? BUY No 49¢ $38 85d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $236 85d
Will Trump say "Iran" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? BUY No 60¢ $2 85d
Will "Fuck" or "Fucking" be said 10+ times during the first episode of BUY Yes 55¢ $83 85d
Will "Fuck" or "Fucking" be said 10+ times during the first episode of BUY Yes 55¢ $27 85d
Will "Sauna" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experie BUY Yes 20¢ $10 85d
Will Trump say "Oil" during executive order signing today? BUY Yes 60¢ $8 85d
Will Trump say "Oil" during executive order signing today? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 85d
Will Trump say "Iran" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? BUY No 60¢ $6 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.20 · official $168.21 (match) · 256 history records