Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:35:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
39 0x3919…d70c sports 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 601d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$116 (+1%) realized +$120 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate47%57W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$138
14 days+$256
30 days+$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 47% +$202
sports 17% +$39
other 17% −$51
crypto 8% −$50
politics 5% −$17
economics 4% −$21
world 1% −$56
tech 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +55.3% +40.5% 59% 26% -6.9%
≤30d 77 +40.9% +27.5% 58% 27% -6.9%
≤90d 77 +40.9% +27.5% 58% 27% -6.9%
all 121 +14.6% +3.6% 47% 23% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 23% -9.1%
10% -6.3% 16% -17.8%
15% -15.3% 12% -25.8%
20% -23.6% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized+$120
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses57 / 64
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions11
Markets (closed)121 / 132
History coverage601d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 84¢ $88 $84 −$4 (-4%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 54¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 2.5 Over 9¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $92 +$7 +8%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 +$24 +34%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $16 +$9 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $175 −$19 -11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $88 +$3 +4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $94 +$6 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $93 −$1 -2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $191 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $108 +$1 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $192 −$1 -1%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +250%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $194 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $192 −$13 -7%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 +$6 +148%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $44 +$3 +6%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +344%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $84 −$8 -9%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $127 −$5 -4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $39 +$10 +25%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 −$45 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $218 +$11 +5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 −$1 -4%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $200 +$10 +5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $180 +$11 +6%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $191 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +197%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 14 $201 +$22 +11%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $7 +$11 +157%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -60%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $37 +$8 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $28 +$2 +7%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +291%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $93 +$7 +7%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $201 −$5 -2%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $115 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $183 +$10 +5%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $23 +$56 +247%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $98 −$47 -48%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $37 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 2.5 BUY Over 9¢ $3 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $67 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $15 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $16 4h
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $99 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $91 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 8h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 8h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 8h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 8h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 76¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 79¢ $147 12h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 79¢ $5 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $16 13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 87¢ $91 14h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 30h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 92¢ $92 30h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 95¢ $191 30h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $175 31h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 97¢ $109 33h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $37 33h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $95 33h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $93 33h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 95¢ $191 33h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $94 33h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 95¢ $191 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.50 · official $244.19 (match) · 543 history records