Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:26:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3919…2804 crypto 114 markets active 6h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%68W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -1.7% -11.1% 60% 60% -9.9%
≤30d 114 -1.7% -11.1% 60% 60% -9.9%
≤90d 114 -1.7% -11.1% 60% 60% -9.9%
all 114 -1.7% -11.1% 60% 60% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 60% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 56% -18.5%
15% -27.3% 47% -26.4%
20% -34.5% 40% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$16 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses68 / 46
Open positions0
Markets (closed)114 / 114
History coverage6d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 114 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$17 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$16 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$13 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$19 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$29 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$13 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$12 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$22 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$14 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$16 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$17 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$13 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$25 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$32 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $38 +$31 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$16 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $22 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $24 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $24 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $22 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $24 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $28 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $27 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $32 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $28 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $30 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $31 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $24 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $23 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $23 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $19 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $19 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $17 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 225 history records