Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:39:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3919…b3f3 sports 18 markets active 20h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$62 (-33%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$30
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +5.4% -4.6% 75% 75% +5.7%
≤30d 18 -14.2% -22.3% 56% 56% -39.4%
≤90d 18 -14.2% -22.3% 56% 56% -39.4%
all 18 -14.2% -22.3% 56% 56% -39.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 56% -39.4%
10% -29.8% 50% -45.2%
15% -36.6% 39% -50.5%
20% -42.8% 22% -55.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage14d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: ex-RUBY (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) Jun 16 $2 +$1 +32%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $3 +$1 +42%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $4 +$2 +48%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $13 −$3 -24%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $12 +$8 +70%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $10 +$9 +86%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Birmingham: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 03 $10 +$5 +54%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $16 −$16 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $6 +$1 +12%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $7 +$3 +38%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $10 +$3 +32%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $13 +$7 +56%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $46 −$46 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY XLG Gaming 58¢ $2 20h
Map Handicap: ex-RUBY (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) BUY illwill 75¢ $2 22h
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 70¢ $3 43h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL 9z 100¢ $6 43h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 67¢ $1 2d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 67¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 44¢ $10 9d
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 44¢ $10 11d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $10 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 66¢ $13 11d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 59¢ $12 12d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 57¢ $6 13d
Birmingham: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen SELL Otto Virtanen 100¢ $16 13d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 53¢ $10 13d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Aryna Sabalenka 62¢ $10 13d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Aryna Sabalenka 61¢ $6 13d
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska SELL Maja Chwalinska 63¢ $6 13d
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 55¢ $6 13d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $10 14d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals BUY Miami Marlins 72¢ $7 14d
Birmingham: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 64¢ $10 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $13 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 75¢ $10 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea SELL Mirra Andreeva 100¢ $20 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Elina Svitolina 46¢ $23 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Elina Svitolina 45¢ $9 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Elina Svitolina 45¢ $2 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Elina Svitolina 45¢ $2 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Elina Svitolina 45¢ $1 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Elina Svitolina 45¢ $9 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records