Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:50:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x391b…6115 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$83 (+18%) realized +$22 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%10W / 12L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$65
14 days−$65
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$9
sports 25% −$12
crypto 8% $0
economics 2% −$11
weather 1% +$1
world 1% −$1
politics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 17 -15.6% -23.6% 47% 47% +0.6%
all 22 -17.1% -25.0% 45% 45% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 45% -1.5%
10% -32.2% 36% -10.9%
15% -38.8% 36% -19.5%
20% -44.8% 32% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses10 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)22 / 31
History coverage98d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $53 $30 −$23 (-44%)
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Yes 36¢ 100¢ $4 $12 +$7 (+176%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 94¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+80%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Under 42¢ 50¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 17¢ 2¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-87%)
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-99%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists Yes 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Yes 78¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $56 −$5 -9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 21 $6 +$1 +22%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $98 +$84 +86%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $19 +$17 +89%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Mar 22 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 18 $3 +$2 +63%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on Ma Mar 18 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 18 $3 +$3 +103%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA Mar 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $3 +$7 +193%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Mar 09 $3 +$1 +42%
Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 216.5 Mar 09 $3 +$2 +78%
Bulls vs. Kings Mar 09 $3 −$3 -86%
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026? Mar 09 $3 −$1 -47%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 42¢ $3 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 1h
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $3 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14 BUY 19¢ $26 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY 39¢ $25 7h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $55 7h
Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists BUY Yes 48¢ $10 8h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 12¢ $5 23h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 87¢ $120 23h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $51 36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 36h
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 96¢ $7 54d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $181 56d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 53¢ $98 58d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 63d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 52¢ $19 63d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $8 84d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? BUY No 63¢ $5 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 88d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on Ma SELL Yes 27¢ $5 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $6 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 88d
Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela BUY USA 42¢ $1 89d
Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela BUY USA 51¢ $4 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.12 · official $50.12 (match) · 57 history records