Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x391f…cf8d other 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$834 (-7%) realized −$802 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate18%14W / 66L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$94
14 days+$94
30 days+$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$803
economics 41% −$12
crypto 1% −$23
tech 0% −$11
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +197.7% +169.3% 100% 100% +106.0%
≤30d 11 +16.3% +5.3% 36% 36% +12.5%
≤90d 14 -8.6% -17.3% 29% 29% -8.2%
all 80 -31.4% -38.0% 18% 14% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.0% 14% -16.6%
10% -43.9% 11% -24.6%
15% -49.3% 11% -31.9%
20% -54.3% 10% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -72% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$26 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$802
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses14 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)80 / 83
History coverage252d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $20 $3 −$17 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $53 +$20 +37%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 17 $21 +$74 +358%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 23 $199 +$214 +107%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $239 −$84 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $81 −$2 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $90 −$63 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $38 −$10 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $9 −$8 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $86 +$96 +111%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $152 −$149 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Mar 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Mar 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 17 $1,807 −$111 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 17 $1,642 +$165 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Feb 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Feb 16 $24 +$13 +53%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026 Feb 16 $1,009 +$120 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 16 $64 −$38 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 16 $98 −$36 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026 Jan 12 $413 −$413 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026 Jan 12 $169 −$168 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026 Jan 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026? Jan 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026 Jan 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Bryan Johnson say "Don’t Die" while tripping balls? Jan 12 $1 $0 +6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Jan 12 $2 $0 +20%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 30 $2 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Nov 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Nov 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Nov 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Nov 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 19 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 14? Nov 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 19 $1 +$124 +12400%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 19 $2 −$1 -60%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 14? Nov 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Nov 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Nov 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 11 $33 −$33 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $73 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 13h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 13h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 13h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 13h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $44 13h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $16 13h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 24d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 24d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 25d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $21 25d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 25d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $111 26d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $110 26d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $205 27d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $170 27d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 27d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $65 27d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $79 27d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $26 27d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 27d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 27d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 27d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 27d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $13 27d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $17 27d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $45 27d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $14 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.30 · official $28.30 (match) · 639 history records