Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:27:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
39 0x3925…42fc weather 361 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$251 (+6%) realized +$224 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR87%break-even
Win rate87%299W / 43L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$89
14 days+$139
30 days+$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$220
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +87%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +6.9% -3.3% 91% 91% -3.6%
≤30d 308 +7.8% -2.5% 90% 90% -3.3%
≤90d 342 +5.1% -4.9% 87% 87% -4.7%
all 342 +5.1% -4.9% 87% 87% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 87% -4.7%
10% -14.0% 18% -13.8%
15% -22.3% 10% -22.1%
20% -29.9% 5% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$12 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$367
Realized+$224
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses299 / 43
Open positions19
Markets (closed)342 / 361
History coverage46d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 342 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? No 82¢ 100¢ $19 $23 +$4 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? No 84¢ 100¢ $19 $23 +$4 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? No 87¢ 91¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 87¢ 91¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? No 73¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? No 80¢ 78¢ $20 $20 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? No 87¢ 88¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? No 85¢ 84¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? No 86¢ 82¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? No 87¢ 100¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? No 86¢ 84¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? No 84¢ 80¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? No 87¢ 78¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? No 85¢ 78¢ $19 $17 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 15? No 87¢ 72¢ $19 $16 −$3 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? No 87¢ 100¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? No 87¢ 58¢ $20 $14 −$7 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? No 87¢ 89¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? No 84¢ 100¢ $11 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? No 86¢ 98¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? No 87¢ 97¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 24? No 87¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C or higher on May 22? No 87¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on May 2? No 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 6? No 85¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $20 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$5 +23%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June Jun 14 $15 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $19 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $19 +$4 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $19 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $13 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $11 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $19 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 13 $18 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $19 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $18 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $18 +$4 +22%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 12 $19 −$19 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $19 +$11 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $18 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 +$5 +27%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 11 $18 +$6 +32%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June Jun 11 $18 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 10? Jun 11 $18 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 10 $14 −$14 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $18 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $17 +$4 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $11 +$2 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $13 5m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $2 27m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 83¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $19 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 76¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $18 7h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $20 11h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $20 11h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $19 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $20 13h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $13 15h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 BUY No 87¢ $20 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $13 18h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 81¢ $20 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 84¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $20 23h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $20 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $9 24h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June BUY No 87¢ $15 26h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $9 29h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $19 29h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $10 29h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $5 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $366.97 · official $366.97 (match) · 748 history records