Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:24:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3929…acf3 crypto 478 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$108 (+3%) realized +$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate86%413W / 65L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$49
14 days+$105
30 days+$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.1% -13.2% 43% 43% -2.2%
≤30d 13 +4.0% -5.9% 62% 54% +0.9%
≤90d 478 -0.6% -10.1% 86% 43% -7.2%
all 478 -0.6% -10.1% 86% 43% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 43% -7.2%
10% -18.7% 12% -16.1%
15% -26.5% 3% -24.2%
20% -33.7% 1% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses413 / 65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)478 / 478
History coverage82d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 478 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $187 +$80 +43%
XRP Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $88 −$40 -46%
XRP Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $31 −$3 -10%
XRP Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $94 +$15 +16%
XRP Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $39 −$22 -57%
XRP Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $90 −$4 -4%
XRP Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $76 +$22 +29%
XRP Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $197 +$42 +22%
XRP Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $29 +$6 +21%
XRP Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $18 +$6 +33%
XRP Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $22 −$4 -19%
XRP Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $35 +$5 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 05 $9 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 31 $9 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 31 $3 +$2 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 31 $9 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 31 $4 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 31 $4 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 31 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 31 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 31 $9 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 31 $4 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 31 $9 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 31 $4 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 31 $14 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 31 $4 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 30 $8 +$2 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 30 $4 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 28¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 28¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 67¢ $7 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 67¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 72¢ $12 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 34¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 34¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 59¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 38¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 61¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 61¢ $6 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 37¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 37¢ $6 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 69¢ $7 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 32¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 32¢ $8 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 63¢ $6 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 31¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 69¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 33¢ $11 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 67¢ $6 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 70¢ $11 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 31¢ $11 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 68¢ $7 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 38¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 71¢ $12 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 29¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 31¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 31¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1656 history records