Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x392a…da0c sports 116 markets active 4h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$442 (-11%) realized −$411 · open −$31
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%57W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$105
14 days−$378
30 days−$433
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$338
other 6% −$120
crypto 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -5.2% -14.2% 50% 50% -20.2%
≤30d 112 -5.8% -14.8% 51% 51% -20.0%
≤90d 112 -5.8% -14.8% 51% 51% -20.0%
all 112 -5.8% -14.8% 51% 51% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 51% -20.0%
10% -22.9% 51% -27.7%
15% -30.4% 49% -34.7%
20% -37.2% 46% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$33 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$411
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses57 / 55
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions4
Markets (closed)112 / 116
History coverage16d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 48¢ $45 $36 −$9 (-19%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-19%)
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $10 +$9 +90%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $24 −$24 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $39 −$38 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $40 −$39 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $30 +$25 +83%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 +$23 +152%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $15 +$15 +101%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 +$20 +67%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $30 −$29 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $30 +$23 +76%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Giron (+1.5) Jun 12 $25 +$18 +74%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $30 −$1 -4%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $32 −$32 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 12 $30 +$24 +79%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $30 +$24 +82%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $20 +$17 +83%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $30 +$21 +70%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $30 +$25 +83%
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Alexander Bublik: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +44%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $14 +$15 +109%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $39 +$30 +76%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $30 +$21 +70%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $47 +$30 +65%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $40 +$22 +56%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $46 +$25 +55%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $63 −$62 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $35 +$25 +70%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $30 +$21 +70%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 09 $35 −$35 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $146 −$145 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $55 +$56 +102%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 08 $38 −$38 -99%
Humbert vs. Ymer: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 08 $25 +$20 +79%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $30 +$21 +70%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $15 +$5 +35%
Ilkley: August Holmgren vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Jun 08 $40 −$40 -99%
Set Handicap: Bonzi (-1.5) vs Rottgering (+1.5) Jun 08 $30 −$30 -98%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $15 −$15 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 08 $25 +$20 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $8 4h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $19 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 58¢ $24 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $10 4d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Bublik 53¢ $39 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $39 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 36¢ $10 4d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Bublik 55¢ $32 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 51¢ $15 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 36¢ $15 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $15 4d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 49¢ $15 5d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $45 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $30 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 54¢ $30 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 28¢ $9 5d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Elena Rybakina 52¢ $30 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 28¢ $15 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 54¢ $29 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 54¢ $30 5d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 61¢ $32 5d
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Jiri Lehecka 56¢ $30 5d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 5d
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Alexander Bublik: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 41¢ $15 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 55¢ $0 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 55¢ $25 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.10 · official $68.10 (match) · 211 history records