trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +4.5% | -5.4% | 67% | 67% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -30.3% | -36.9% | 44% | 44% | -23.5% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -32.4% | -38.8% | 41% | 41% | -23.4% |
| all | 17 | -32.4% | -38.8% | 41% | 41% | -23.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -38.8% | 41% | -23.4% |
| 10% | -44.7% | 41% | -30.8% |
| 15% | -50.0% | 35% | -37.5% |
| 20% | -54.9% | 12% | -43.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 65¢ | 64¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | Yes | 42¢ | 42¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 76¢ | 76¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Spread: Japan (-1.5) | Japan | 36¢ | 36¢ | $50 | $49 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? | Yes | 26¢ | 26¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? | Yes | 25¢ | 24¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Spread: Norway (-1.5) | Norway | 20¢ | 20¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? | Yes | 29¢ | 28¢ | $20 | $19 | −$1 (-5%) |
| Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $10 | $11 | +$1 (+6%) |
| Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 12¢ | 12¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-10%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $101 | +$40 | +40% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $303 | +$140 | +46% |
| Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $21 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 16 | $304 | −$304 | -100% |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $101 | +$95 | +93% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $101 | +$48 | +48% |
| Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? | May 19 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? | May 19 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? | May 19 | $101 | −$100 | -99% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | May 11 | $101 | −$100 | -99% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | May 11 | $101 | +$27 | +27% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? | May 11 | $101 | +$44 | +44% |
| Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-02? | May 11 | $102 | +$155 | +152% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Apr 30 | $102 | −$100 | -98% |
| Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-01? | Apr 30 | $21 | −$20 | -97% |
| Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-02? | Apr 30 | $102 | −$100 | -98% |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Apr 29 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |