Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:24:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x3930…eaa0
other · 23 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$22 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$21 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)16 / 23
History coverage2d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit17%
Chart Positions 7 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 +$4 +10%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$6 -63%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $11 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 91% +$19
sports 6% +$1
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $40 2h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 94¢ $30 3h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 16h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 89¢ $11 17h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 19h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 19h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 19h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 19h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 19h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 19h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 21h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 50¢ $2 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-49.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -44.1% -49.4% 38% 25% +2.4%
≤30d 16 -44.1% -49.4% 38% 25% +2.4%
≤90d 16 -44.1% -49.4% 38% 25% +2.4%
all 16 -44.1% -49.4% 38% 25% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.4% 25% +2.4%
10% -54.3% 19% -7.4%
15% -58.7% 19% -16.3%
20% -62.7% 19% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.47 · official $14.47 (match) · 30 history records