Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:09:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x3933…7818
sports · 754 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$809 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$636 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized+$636
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses517 / 236
Est. fees paid−$94
Open positions1
Markets (closed)753 / 754
History coverage105d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 1 History 753 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$111
7 days−$32
14 days−$4
30 days−$343
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $23 −$15 -64%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $58 +$18 +32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $97 −$86 -88%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $145 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $256 +$1 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $80 +$5 +6%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$4 +120%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $13 +$3 +26%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $34 +$15 +45%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $6 −$5 -90%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $5 +$1 +15%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $65 +$20 +31%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $21 +$4 +18%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $5 −$1 -20%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $5 +$2 +43%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 09 $5 +$2 +33%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $11 +$3 +23%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $5 −$2 -29%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $17 +$4 +21%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $6 $0 +4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 +$2 +26%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $11 +$3 +30%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 08 $12 +$4 +30%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $190 +$30 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 07 $102 +$30 +30%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $67 −$38 -56%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $12 −$6 -48%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $11 +$5 +40%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $6 +$1 +13%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 07 $6 −$2 -39%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $5 $0 -9%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $6 −$1 -22%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $10 $0 +2%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $7 +$1 +20%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $5 −$1 -10%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $11 +$3 +25%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $46 +$11 +24%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $12 $0 +3%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $5 +$2 +39%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $5 +$3 +51%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $67 +$42 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $70 −$70 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $66 +$27 +41%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $10 +$6 +60%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $10 −$8 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 42% +$1,098
crypto 38% −$330
other 9% −$171
world 4% −$1
tech 3% +$47
politics 2% +$1
finance 2% −$3
culture 0% +$4
economics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $23 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 38¢ $4 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 28¢ $3 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 85¢ $73 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $56 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 7¢ $11 6h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $8 6h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $18 6h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $19 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $85 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $85 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 94¢ $80 28h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $12 30h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 30h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $18 31h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $12 35h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 35h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 82¢ $8 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 80¢ $16 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $13 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 3¢ $1 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Chicago Cubs 70¢ $2 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Chicago Cubs 70¢ $4 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 30¢ $6 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 85¢ $85 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -1.0% -10.5% 68% 50% -11.7%
≤30d 116 +2.1% -7.6% 68% 59% -17.6%
≤90d 346 +2.6% -7.2% 67% 49% -7.5%
all 753 -0.3% -9.8% 69% 41% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 41% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 22% -16.7%
15% -26.3% 11% -24.8%
20% -33.5% 6% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.91 · official $4.91 (match) · 2864 history records