Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:47:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x3935…c917
sports · 151 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$67 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$74 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$77
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses53 / 79
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions19
Markets (closed)132 / 151
History coverage67d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 19 History 132 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$5
14 days−$23
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 43¢ 46¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs Ground Zero 93¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-14? No 73¢ 90¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+23%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Mauricio Ruffy 83¢ 81¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-14? No 76¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+19%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Team Liquid 45¢ 58¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+30%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Under 58¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) TDK 54¢ 56¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 54¢ 53¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Barbora Krejcikova 72¢ 50¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-31%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 38¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 31¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 42¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 32¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-43%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs illwill 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Rockets Rockets 74¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Timberwolves 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Jets vs. Golden Knights Jets 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will EC Juventude vs. AA Ponte Preta end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $2 +$3 +114%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +129%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $4 −$1 -30%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $2 +$3 +114%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$3 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3 +$3 +109%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $3 +$2 +83%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-10.5) Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $3 −$3 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) Jun 05 $3 −$3 -99%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 03 $3 +$3 +114%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) Jun 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries May 31 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $3 +$3 +90%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-5.5) May 30 $3 +$3 +109%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics May 29 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 29 $3 +$3 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5) May 26 $3 +$3 +90%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $3 +$3 +90%
Dallas Wings vs. New York Liberty May 24 $3 +$7 +226%
Portland Fire vs. Toronto Tempo May 24 $3 +$5 +172%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky May 23 $3 +$2 +76%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $3 −$3 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 23 $3 +$1 +24%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 23 $3 +$1 +44%
Dallas Wings vs. Chicago Sky May 23 $3 +$2 +67%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-3.5) May 23 $3 +$2 +79%
1H Spread: Knicks (-3.5) May 23 $3 +$3 +93%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5 May 23 $3 +$3 +93%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-5.5) May 23 $3 +$3 +101%
Dallas Wings vs. Atlanta Dream May 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 87% −$61
other 7% −$11
world 4% +$1
crypto 1% −$4
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $2 35m
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 42¢ $2 1h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) BUY TDK 54¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY Ground Zero 93¢ $5 1h
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 76¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie BUY illwill 35¢ $2 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 4h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 81¢ $4 11h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 46¢ $2 13h
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 73¢ $4 13h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 83¢ $4 14h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 58¢ $3 14h
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Barbora Krejcikova 72¢ $4 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 43¢ $2 19h
Will EC Juventude vs. AA Ponte Preta end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $4 19h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 23h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $3 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 38¢ $2 24h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 28¢ $2 24h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 46¢ $2 25h
Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 54¢ $3 30h
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 20¢ $2 30h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 56¢ $3 30h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $0 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $0 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $2 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +10.1% -0.3% 56% 56% +1.8%
≤30d 55 -10.5% -19.0% 45% 45% -19.6%
≤90d 132 -12.7% -21.0% 40% 40% -22.6%
all 132 -12.7% -21.0% 40% 40% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 40% -22.6%
10% -28.6% 40% -30.0%
15% -35.5% 37% -36.8%
20% -41.8% 36% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.18 · official $76.79 (match) · 211 history records