Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:52:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x393a…d9bd crypto 452 markets active 5d ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (113 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate84%380W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day113.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (113 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 275 -2.5% -11.8% 93% 7% -11.8%
≤30d 452 -2.6% -11.8% 84% 14% -11.9%
≤90d 452 -2.6% -11.8% 84% 14% -11.9%
all 452 -2.6% -11.8% 84% 14% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover113.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 14% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 6% -20.3%
15% -28.0% 3% -28.0%
20% -35.0% 2% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses380 / 72
Open positions0
Markets (closed)452 / 452
History coverage5d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day113.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 452 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 954 history records