Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:01:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x393a…cd5a crypto 1171 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$233 (+2%) realized +$233 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%434W / 727L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day65.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$29
14 days+$29
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$109
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +37.4% +24.3% 63% 47% +8.1%
≤30d 476 +53.1% +38.5% 37% 34% -8.9%
≤90d 1161 +41.9% +28.4% 37% 34% -10.2%
all 1161 +41.9% +28.4% 37% 34% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.4% 34% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here +16.1% 32% -18.8%
15% +4.9% 29% -26.6%
20% -5.4% 25% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +68% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$9 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$233
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses434 / 727
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1161 / 1171
History coverage44d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day65.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$7 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 26 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 26 $7 +$8 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$5 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $25 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$4 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 31m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.39 · official $15.39 (match) · 3341 history records