Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:45:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
39 0x3941…bdcb sports 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,227 (+2%) realized +$1,227 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate78%109W / 30L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$555per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$285est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$158
7 days−$260
14 days−$22
30 days+$584
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$565
other 5% +$302
politics 0% +$3
crypto 0% −$30
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -10.8% -19.3% 40% 0% -14.9%
≤30d 25 +2.5% -7.3% 76% 44% -6.7%
≤90d 105 +1.6% -8.1% 77% 37% -8.6%
all 139 +0.9% -8.7% 78% 34% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 34% -8.5%
10% -17.4% 4% -17.3%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$703) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$150 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,227
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses109 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$285
Open positions0
Markets (closed)139 / 139
History coverage114d
Avg bet$555
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 139 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $502 −$188 -37%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $2,001 +$29 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $981 −$114 -12%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $201 −$24 -12%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $676 +$37 +6%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $507 +$54 +11%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $481 +$51 +11%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $1,003 +$117 +12%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $502 −$148 -30%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 07 $1,034 +$163 +16%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands Jun 03 $401 +$45 +11%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $502 −$187 -37%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $1,003 +$94 +9%
T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Gloucestershire May 31 $1,971 −$28 -1%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands May 31 $501 +$54 +11%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $503 +$114 +23%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $501 +$48 +10%
Will the match end in a draw? May 29 $511 +$62 +12%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 28 $762 +$17 +2%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $569 +$70 +12%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $864 +$86 +10%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $502 +$61 +12%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $703 +$39 +6%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 24 $501 +$54 +11%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $1,169 +$78 +7%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $1,227 +$106 +9%
Will the match end in a draw? May 20 $666 +$165 +25%
Will Bangladesh win? May 19 $251 −$62 -25%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $251 +$24 +10%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $388 +$46 +12%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics May 17 $200 +$11 +5%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $924 +$119 +13%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $481 −$116 -24%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $502 −$137 -27%
Pakistan Super League: Islamabad United vs Hyderabad Kingsmen May 10 $501 −$305 -61%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 10 $1,130 +$48 +4%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $501 +$53 +11%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $602 +$37 +6%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $962 +$77 +8%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 06 $301 +$22 +7%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $501 +$50 +10%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 04 $200 +$3 +2%
Pakistan Super League: Peshawar Zalmi vs Hyderabad Kingsmen May 03 $821 +$67 +8%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 03 $200 −$21 -10%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 03 $485 +$47 +10%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 03 $702 +$67 +10%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 01 $787 +$40 +5%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 29 $231 +$25 +11%
Pakistan Super League: Multan Sultans vs Hyderabad Kingsmen Apr 29 $189 +$10 +6%
Pakistan Super League: Peshawar Zalmi vs Islamabad United Apr 29 $624 +$37 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Baltimore Orioles 57¢ $314 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 89¢ $5 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 89¢ $50 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 89¢ $446 1h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 100¢ $2,030 42h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 98¢ $500 42h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 98¢ $100 42h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 98¢ $200 42h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 98¢ $300 42h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 98¢ $100 42h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 99¢ $300 42h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 99¢ $500 42h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 87¢ $867 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 98¢ $981 4d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 50¢ $5 6d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 69¢ $85 6d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 75¢ $101 6d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 71¢ $87 6d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 80¢ $101 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL India 100¢ $713 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 95¢ $190 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 95¢ $76 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 95¢ $95 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 95¢ $57 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 95¢ $1 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 95¢ $28 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 95¢ $29 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 94¢ $16 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 94¢ $16 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 94¢ $61 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 899 history records