Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:30:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
39 0x3942…ee94 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,677 (+66%) realized +$1,680 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%6W / 14L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$334now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$106
7 days−$193
14 days+$810
30 days+$1,757
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$1,544
sports 11% +$90
crypto 1% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -19.5% -27.2% 29% 29% -32.6%
≤30d 17 +54.5% +39.8% 35% 35% +73.5%
≤90d 20 +34.3% +21.5% 30% 30% +59.9%
all 20 +34.3% +21.5% 30% 30% +59.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.5% 30% +59.9%
10% +9.9% 30% +44.6%
15% -0.7% 30% +30.7%
20% -10.5% 25% +17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 84% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +77% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +77% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +77% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$453 vs −$79 · ×5.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$334
Realized+$1,680
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses6 / 14
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)20 / 24
History coverage56d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 54¢ 54¢ $108 $107 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $97 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $78 $76 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $54 $52 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$53 -52%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $95 +$87 +92%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $103 +$229 +223%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $100 +$1,103 +1103%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? Jun 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $411 +$1,189 +289%
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 24 $49 −$3 -7%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 24 $99 +$46 +47%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $50 +$65 +131%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 11 $50 −$20 -40%
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-04-26? May 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $56 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $80 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $110 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $49 9h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $102 10h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 12¢ $32 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $331 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $95 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $103 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $103 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $300 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,203 13d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes $100 13d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 16¢ $100 13d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes $100 18d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 18d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $100 21d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 30¢ $100 21d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 25¢ $105 24d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $105 24d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 25¢ $306 24d
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? SELL Yes 35¢ $46 24d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 42¢ $146 24d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 100¢ $115 28d
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? BUY Yes 36¢ $49 37d
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 37d
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 48¢ $100 52d
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $29 55d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes $30 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.65 · official $333.65 (match) · 101 history records