Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
39 0x3944…bd50 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,638 (-10%) realized −$1,637 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$346per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$4,574now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$1,268
sports 18% +$857
crypto 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +20.5% +9.1% 53% 53% -13.2%
≤30d 32 +20.5% +9.1% 53% 53% -13.2%
≤90d 32 +20.5% +9.1% 53% 53% -13.2%
all 32 +20.5% +9.1% 53% 53% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.1% 53% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -1.4% 53% -21.5%
15% -10.9% 53% -29.1%
20% -19.6% 47% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$289 vs −$355 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$4,574
Realized−$1,637
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions11
Markets (closed)32 / 47
History coverage3d
Avg bet$346
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $1,175 $1,166 −$9 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1,000 $1,026 +$26 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1,000 $1,013 +$13 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $202 −$6 -3%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $214 +$483 +226%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $103 +$275 +268%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $787 +$600 +76%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $204 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $103 −$94 -91%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $205 +$75 +36%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $205 −$200 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $231 −$226 -98%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $355 +$334 +94%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $205 −$200 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Will S Jun 18 $277 +$723 +261%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $395 +$225 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 +$107 +105%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $304 +$296 +97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $406 −$400 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $302 +$109 +36%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Uzbekistan win o Jun 18 $203 +$238 +117%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $306 +$657 +215%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$148 +73%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,022 −$3,000 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $503 +$310 +62%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$121 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $506 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,010 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 64¢ $317 1h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 69¢ $195 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 1h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $303 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 8h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $71 9h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 19¢ $173 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 11h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $144 11h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 11h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 16¢ $120 11h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 21¢ $160 11h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 21¢ $65 12h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 13h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 13h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 29¢ $306 21h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 23h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score AND Will Türkiye win on 2026 BUY 27¢ $272 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,574.07 · official $4,574.08 (match) · 87 history records