Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:31:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

39 0x3946…7a19 sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL −$89 (-16%) realized −$89 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip

Net edge+23%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%6W / 3L

Drawdown80%max

Avg bet$63per market

Trades / day13.2pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+32.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+46.9%	+32.9%	67%	67%	+8.6%
≤30d	9	+46.9%	+32.9%	67%	67%	+8.6%
≤90d	9	+46.9%	+32.9%	67%	67%	+8.6%
all	9	+46.9%	+32.9%	67%	67%	+8.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+32.9%	67%	+8.6%
10%	+20.2%	67%	-1.8%
15%	+8.6%	67%	-11.3%
20%	-2.0%	67%	-20.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 42% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +47% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$48 vs −$59 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$89

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses6 / 3

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions0

Markets (closed)9 / 9

History coverage1d

Avg bet$63

Trades / day13.2

Drawdown80%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 9 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 23	$75	+$55	+73%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$37	+$42	+114%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$83	−$83	-100%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 23	$30	+$36	+118%
France vs. Iraq: France 2nd Half O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$75	+$65	+88%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$92	−$91	-99%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$55	+$37	+67%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$85	−$2	-3%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	Jun 21	$32	+$53	+165%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$129	1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$79	1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	46¢	$37	1h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$67	1h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	45¢	$30	2h
France vs. Iraq: France 2nd Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	99¢	$140	2h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	57¢	$75	2h
France vs. Iraq: France 2nd Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	52¢	$75	4h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	55¢	$92	6h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5	BUY Over	59¢	$55	10h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$83	27h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5	SELL Over	54¢	$83	27h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5	BUY Over	54¢	$85	27h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$85	27h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	37¢	$32	28h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records