Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:41:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3949…626d other 188 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,627 (+1%) realized +$2,625 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate24%44W / 142L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$1,283per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$480now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$13
14 days−$31
30 days−$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$11
politics 34% −$104
sports 17% +$2,678
world 2% −$7
economics 2% −$4
culture 1% −$5
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 41 -3.1% -12.3% 5% 2% -9.8%
≤90d 105 -0.9% -10.4% 5% 4% -8.5%
all 186 +1.8% -7.9% 24% 11% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 11% -8.6%
10% -16.7% 10% -17.3%
15% -24.8% 9% -25.3%
20% -32.1% 7% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,701) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$8 · ×10.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.43 per $1 lost it wins $3.43
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$480
Realized+$2,625
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses44 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions2
Markets (closed)186 / 188
History coverage153d
Avg bet$1,283
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $286 $286 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $192 $194 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1,474 −$2 -0%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 23 $377 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $380 $0 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $313 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2,442 −$3 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $1,263 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $3,297 −$4 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $1,170 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $7,016 −$6 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $1,172 −$2 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $724 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $3,497 −$5 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,783 −$3 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $654 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $708 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $912 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $8,682 −$10 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $3,027 −$4 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $916 −$1 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 04 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,932 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $900 −$1 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $54 +$43 +79%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,872 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $4,086 −$6 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $5,158 −$5 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $459 $0 +0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 26 $2,482 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $495 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $1,019 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $2,400 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $871 −$1 -0%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $67 −$67 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $908 −$1 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,003 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $3,943 −$5 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $69 +$57 +83%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $2,091 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $286 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $334 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $335 4h
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $376 22h
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $377 23h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $379 28h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $380 29h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $312 45h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $313 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $313 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $314 2d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $374 2d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $374 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $349 4d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $350 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $388 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $389 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $407 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $408 6d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $522 7d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $523 7d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $646 7d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $647 7d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $638 8d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $639 8d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $623 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $624 9d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $715 9d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $716 9d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $619 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $479.55 · official $479.55 (match) · 658 history records