Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:44:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3949…3255 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$112 (+11%) realized +$115 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$494now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$98
sports 6% +$8
crypto 1% $0
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +8.0% -2.3% 35% 24% +13.4%
≤30d 37 +8.0% -2.3% 35% 24% +13.4%
≤90d 37 +8.0% -2.3% 35% 24% +13.4%
all 37 +8.0% -2.3% 35% 24% +13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.3% 24% +13.4%
10% ← realistic here -11.6% 22% +2.6%
15% -20.2% 19% -7.4%
20% -28.0% 16% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$4 · ×3.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$494
Realized+$115
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage4d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $497 $494 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$6 -64%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 $0 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $319 +$178 +56%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -5%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -78%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $17 −$3 -17%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$3 +86%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -34%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 +21%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -89%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +167%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +146%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$6 +303%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 +$9 +78%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 −$7 -58%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $12 +$5 +42%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -83%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 $0 -7%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $450 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 4h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 69¢ $8 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $8 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $497 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $100 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $100 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $16 16h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 16h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 16h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 17h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 17h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $13 17h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 17h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 87¢ $4 17h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 18h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 20h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $494.17 · official $494.17 (match) · 100 history records