Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:09:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x394a…6907 politics 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate10%3W / 27L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% −$18
sports 24% −$3
crypto 14% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 30 +1.3% -8.3% 10% 3% -9.8%
all 30 +1.3% -8.3% 10% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 3% -9.8%
10% -17.1% 3% -18.4%
15% -25.1% 3% -26.3%
20% -32.5% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$4 · ×7.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses3 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage86d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $105 $105 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $104 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $104 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $215 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $216 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $104 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $213 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $106 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $217 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $105 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $318 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $105 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $211 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $108 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $106 +$99 +93%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $222 −$111 -50%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $111 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $111 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $224 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $112 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 06 $112 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 03 $1,026 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $512 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $513 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $515 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $105 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $104 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $104 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $104 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $104 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $104 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $104 14d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $105 14d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $105 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $105 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $105 17d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $104 17d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $104 19d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $105 19d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $105 20d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $105 20d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $105 20d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $106 20d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $106 24d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $105 24d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $105 25d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $105 25d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $105 27d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $105 27d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $105 28d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $106 28d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $106 34d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $105 34d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $105 35d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $106 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.95 · official $104.95 (match) · 171 history records