Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:34:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3954…c892 politics 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%17W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$3
sports 18% −$3
other 10% −$24
crypto 9% $0
economics 9% +$1
culture 6% $0
world 3% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -18.0% -25.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 5 -10.9% -19.4% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 5 -10.9% -19.4% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 76 -8.8% -17.5% 22% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 0% -10.2%
10% -25.4% 0% -18.8%
15% -32.6% 0% -26.6%
20% -39.2% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses17 / 59
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage274d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $123 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 19 $1 $0 -54%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $47 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 09 $169 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 05 $3 $0 -2%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 23? Feb 24 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 14 $47 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 8? Feb 10 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Feb 04 $47 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 31 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $1 $0 -50%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $47 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 26 $47 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 24 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 24 $121 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $121 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 19? Jan 20 $48 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 15 $49 $0 -1%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? Jan 10 $47 $0 +0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 08 $47 +$1 +1%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 03 $46 $0 +0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 31 $47 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 30 $2 $0 -11%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $148 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 29 $46 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 28 $49 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 26 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $119 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $1 $0 -7%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 22 $49 $0 -1%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 20 $1 $0 -50%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 18 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 15? Dec 15 $70 $0 +0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 14 $71 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 1h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 3d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 5d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 10d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $46 12d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $46 19d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 21d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 24d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 105d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 107d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 109d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $45 110d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 0¢ $0 110d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 0¢ $1 112d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $45 112d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $45 114d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 23? BUY No 100¢ $46 119d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 119d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 20? BUY No 100¢ $44 122d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 122d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 124d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 124d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 126d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 BUY No 100¢ $47 129d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 8? BUY No 100¢ $48 134d
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $47 138d
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $47 141d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 265 history records