Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:15:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3956…55cf other 280 markets active 0h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%21W / 259L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$21
14 days−$31
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$34
sports 25% −$19
politics 9% −$8
culture 9% −$9
economics 7% −$9
crypto 4% −$4
world 3% −$4
tech 1% −$2
finance 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 173 -0.1% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 280 -0.1% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses21 / 259
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)280 / 280
History coverage145d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 280 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $228 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $534 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $533 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $241 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $435 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $41 $0 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $198 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $676 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $226 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $203 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $412 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $205 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $213 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $139 −$1 -1%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $345 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $254 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $165 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $356 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $152 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $344 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $222 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $64 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $351 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $664 −$2 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $65 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $592 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 10 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $262 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $393 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $240 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $67 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $299 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $737 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 20m
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 3h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 4h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $59 6h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $59 8h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $59 9h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $59 11h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 12h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 14h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 15h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 17h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $59 25h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $60 27h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 31h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 33h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $60 33h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $60 35h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 37h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 38h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $60 40h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $60 41h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 43h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 44h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $7 44h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $54 46h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $54 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $7 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $28 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $41 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1487 history records