Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:47:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
39 0x3957…35f0 sports 177 markets active 2h ago coverage 59d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+0%) realized +$39 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate64%113W / 63L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$949per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$1,482est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$498now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 59d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$2,249
other 3% −$7
world 0% +$245
crypto 0% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -9.6% -18.2% 53% 53% -32.0%
≤30d 75 -0.5% -10.0% 63% 56% -11.1%
≤90d 176 +0.5% -9.1% 64% 58% -10.6%
all 176 +0.5% -9.1% 64% 58% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 58% -10.6%
10% -17.8% 47% -19.2%
15% -25.7% 28% -27.0%
20% -33.0% 9% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$1,282) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$253 vs −$485 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$498
Realized+$39
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses113 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$1,482
Open positions1
Markets (closed)176 / 177
History coverage59d
Avg bet$949
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $500 $498 −$2 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 25 $1,367 −$500 -37%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 25 $804 −$498 -62%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $506 +$314 +62%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $606 −$111 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$32 +32%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $404 +$221 +55%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $505 +$276 +55%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $606 −$545 -90%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $505 −$370 -73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $707 +$323 +46%
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Jun 22 $605 −$200 -33%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $505 +$241 +48%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 21 $43 +$8 +17%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $807 +$352 +44%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $405 −$373 -92%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa Jun 19 $465 +$222 +48%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $1,855 −$1,855 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $505 −$490 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $506 +$341 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $715 −$715 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $805 +$223 +28%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $2,734 +$43 +2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $605 +$240 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $804 +$171 +21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $803 +$116 +14%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $605 +$217 +36%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $522 +$245 +47%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $388 −$388 -100%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $1,422 −$1,034 -73%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 09 $1,258 +$101 +8%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 09 $1,439 +$64 +4%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 09 $506 −$27 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,660 −$375 -23%
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens Jun 08 $705 +$240 +34%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $1,339 −$78 -6%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1,708 −$211 -12%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,907 +$332 +17%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 06 $651 −$184 -28%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $705 +$204 +29%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $797 +$558 +70%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $1,085 −$287 -26%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1,361 −$276 -20%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $1,354 +$134 +10%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $1,405 +$212 +15%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $454 −$454 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $606 +$317 +52%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $553 −$7 -1%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $945 +$215 +23%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $1,896 +$23 +1%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $1,918 −$975 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $506 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse SELL Gabriela Ruse 100¢ $1,272 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Gabriela Ruse 67¢ $861 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Emma Navarro 58¢ $506 3h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva SELL Ethan Quinn 32¢ $306 6h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva BUY Ethan Quinn 82¢ $804 7h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $506 37h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 56¢ $495 38h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $606 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 38h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $404 40h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova SELL Linda Noskova $60 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 68¢ $606 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 64¢ $505 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 18¢ $135 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $505 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $707 3d
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang SELL Iva Jovic 50¢ $405 3d
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Iva Jovic 73¢ $605 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 3d
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 85¢ $43 4d
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Linda Noskova 69¢ $807 5d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka $32 5d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 60¢ $405 5d
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa BUY Linda Noskova 67¢ $465 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 87¢ $1,855 7d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes $15 7d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $506 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $715 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $497.99 · official $497.99 (match) · 408 history records